Welcome to bravo™ diabetes model

The Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes model is a person-level discrete-time microsimulation model, predicting the progression of diabetes on the basis of individuals’ dynamic characteristics and treatment regimen over a lifetime. The model provides predictions on the risk of macrovascular events (i.e., Myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, angina, revascularization), microvascular events (i.e., chronic kidney disease, end-stage renal disease, retinopathy, blindness, neuropathy, amputation), and adverse events (e.g., hypoglycemia, diabetic ketoacidosis) over a user-specified time horizon. It was internally validated across different age/race/complication subgroups and externally validated against 18 large diabetes clinical trials conducted after 2000. We’ve further developed our signature “Globalization Module” to calibrate the BRAVO model’s target population from the U.S to a global scale, based on cohorts data including more than 100,000 individuals internationally. The model is currently being calibrated based on data from the U.S. national survey to enhance its capacity to assist national policy evaluation.